Cut-Price Chipolopolo Forward set for Rangers Second Act: Fashion Sakala Analysis
The fervent wave that has been brewing in anticipation of May 15th is, without doubt, the marquee date in the calendar of all Rangers fans. Despite the momentous nature of the achievement, it just takes a matter of days for attention to be diverted towards the upcoming season, with the intent of bettering the previous. With moving into the 2021/22 season, it appears that Rangers have no serious structural problems and will use this window as an exercise of filling in gaps and enlisting reinforcements for domestic and continental duty alike. This approach is evident when it comes to the recruitment of Zambian forward, Fashion Sakala. His on-pitch acumen will be judged later on, but this transfer leaves Rangers with little to lose. A multi-faceted forward who has performed in a league a level above ours, all this without a transfer fee, there is little not to like about the financial aspect of this deal.
Who is Fashion Sakala?
Sakala hails from Zambia’s fifth city, Chipata, the largest in eastern Zambia. The forwards’ first experience in a professional footballing environment was for Chingola’s Nchanga Rangers, so this, in fact, is not his first time donning the kit of Rangers, though the Zambian and Scottish iterations share no known connection. After a goal-littered debut season in Zambia, Sakala swapped heat-swept Zambia for the bitingly cold Russian capital, Moscow, signing with the “peoples team”, Spartak. Sakala failed to make an appearance for the first team; however, he had shown enough for the 2nd team who compete in the FNL, Russia’s second tier, to attract interest around the continent.
After a solitary year out in the cold, literally and figuratively, Sakala moved to the Belgian coast, settling in Oostende and turning out for Belgian Pro League side KV Oostende. Throughout his tenure in Belgium, the Zambian showed off sparks of brilliance, with the frequency increasing as the months rolled over. Until the 20/21 season, Sakala’s primary position was out wide on the left-wing. Nonetheless, as the current season kicked on, Sakala has been increasingly used as a striker in tandem with a partner in a 352. The positional transition has its merits as Sakala has managed a career-high 13 league goals, albeit with five matches still to come. Despite a successful stint for individual and team alike, Sakala failed to negotiate terms with Oostende, and as a result, has been able to negotiate terms with clubs since January. Multiple sources suggested that several teams have waited in the wings to pounce on the contractual mishap, with Rangers eventually overcoming the pack and securing the Zambian’s exploits for years to come.
Data Analysis
The data set I have used are all forwards in both the Belgian Pro League and Scottish Premiership. The minimum minutes threshold for a player is 1000 minutes, as I see this as enough time for any statistical anomalies or quirks to be ironed out. When these filters are applied, roughly 100 players come out with some heavy hitters involved, with Paul Onachu, Noa Lang, and Charles De Ketelaere in the pool. Sakala’s positional bilingualism makes it difficult to compare him with just wingers or strikers, as it is likely that he will feature in both areas for Rangers, so that is why the pool is all forwards as opposed to just strikers or wingers.
The chart above shows Sakala’s finishing exploits, gauging both quality and quantity. The Zambian finds himself in and around Alfredo Morelos and Kemar Roofe, which is encouraging as both of that duo find themselves towards the top of the Scottish Premiership’s top scorers list. Specifically, Sakala finds himself in the top 75% when it comes to Shots p90 (2.97 p90) and around 50% when it comes to accuracy (39.5%). Of course, when placed in Ibrox, you would expect the accuracy number to increase as he will be placed in more opportune situations and perhaps the number of shots also to increase as he would find himself in a more dominant team.
When we move the focus onto passing, Sakala is perhaps less impressive; however, he doesn’t find himself chasing the coattails of the Rangers forwards, as Roofe and Morelos are equally average. The image above shows Sakala’s passing numbers, which are intriguing as he finds himself passing the ball at a below-average rate (18.1 p90) but is in the top half when it comes to producing shot assists (1.1 p90). The lack of passes is perhaps due to system and circumstance as Oostende are not a possession dominant team and find themselves outside of Belgium’s elite.
As we move on to highlighting dribbling, Sakala’s numbers continue to be encouraging. In terms of quantity, Sakala finds himself between Hagi and Kent and on the cusp of the top 25% of all players in the data pool (5.4 p90). The forwards’ dribble success is just lower than the median (44.5%); however, this is expected as he is often forced to manufacture chances whilst isolated, which is at best an arduous task and at worst a nightmare. However, at Ibrox, Sakala would also be afforded less space both as an individual and a team, so it would be no surprise if his dribbling numbers would not increase exponentially.
The bee-swarm plot above shows off an assortment of Sakala’s attacking exploits. In terms of penalty-box stats, Sakala is mightily impressive. As a result, he finds himself towards the upper end of Non-Penalty Goals p90 (0.43), xG p90 (0.59), and Touches in box p90 (5.1). These are the indicators that most likely forced Sakala’s name into recruitment conversations around Ibrox. The other three stats are less impressive; however, they are not especially concerning. His crosses (1.2 p90) and passes received (14.4 p90) can be stylistically explained as he often finds himself as the most advanced forward in Oostende’s 11. Expect both of these to increase in a Rangers side who are expected to dominate possession in almost every match. The progressive runs stat (2.65 p90) is encouraging but a bit of a false dawn, as whilst at Rangers, there would be in all likelihood a lack of space for Sakala to drive into.
Data Visualisations
Pure numbers always provide an insight; however, they are often limited due to a lack of context. The next three visuals all show the location of Sakala’s work whilst also indicating the occurrence levels of each action.
The central motivation of Sakala’s signing was always goals and the intent of bolstering the armoury of goalscorers at Ibrox. I have addressed the positional diversity of Sakala earlier, which can only be seen as advantageous, as the Zambian should provide goals from out wide and centrally. The maps above represent all of Sakala’s shots in his past previous four seasons, with colour and size indicating the outcome and quality of chance. What immediately stands out when analysing his shots and goals is the proximity to the goal, which most are. Though Sakala may attempt shots from outside the box, it appears that these only go in on a seasonal rate, with almost all of his goals originating north of the penalty spot. Sakala has tended to get a degree of altitude sickness, especially in his formative years; however, it appears that with every passing year, the Zambian becomes an increasingly reliable finisher. You can also see the gradual centring of most of his goals; this is especially stark when comparing his 19–20 campaign and the current one.
In tandem with goalscoring, Sakala will be heavily involved in the build-up, whether from a central or wide position. The fluid nature of the front three requires Sakala to effectively interplay with his teammates and provide a threat when not directly in front of the goal. Assists, Second Assists and Shot Assists, are the currency of effective advanced passing, which Sakala will be tasked with and expected to excel at. In terms of stylistic trend, lots of Sakala’s best work is done via layoffs and back passes from an already very advanced position; both the 19/20 and 20/21 exemplify this. As the forward has become more ingrained, his playmaking exploits have reciprocally improved, both in terms of quality and quantity. With plenty of willing runners who carrier a lethal touch he won’t have experienced at Oostende, it’s safe to say that Sakala should develop into a net benefit to his teammates.
The visual above indicates areas that Sakala is actively engaged, as it shows off the location of all his actions in the past six league matches. However, what this doesn’t show is perhaps more important than what it does. What it doesn’t show is that Sakala is pigeonholed into a single area of the pitch; instead, he meanders around the pitch. Despite this, like any forward, he is primarily found in the oppositions half. The overwhelming orange colour is not as concerning as it may appear, as despite these represent unsuccessful action, many of these are defensive in nature which is not an area Sakala is expected to bolster upon arrival.
Video Analysis
Up to now, this analysis has focused on data; however, the next section will focus on video footage, which will begin to synthesise the eye and number test. Evidently, this is a microcosm of Sakala’s game; however, the following clips should encapsulate his fundamental tendencies.
Finishing
When it comes to finishing, Sakala rubs shoulders with Morelos, as he lacks the clinical edge, which is often desired of top-level strikers. That is not to say the Zambian is a poor finisher, far from it; rather, it will be interesting to see if the Ibrox faithful and staff afford Sakala the same patience that Morelos is regularly given. Despite this, Sakala is an able finisher who does his best work on the break.
The clip above shows the prototypical build-up for a Sakala shooting opportunity. Out front, Sakala is forced to manufacture space for a ball. His modus operandi in this situation is to drift wide. Sakala pushes left, which causes his defensive matchup to do so as well. With space in behind, Sakala manages to progress unharmed until the penalty area, where he is forced to stick or twist. A quick burst of pace buys him enough space to get a shot off, which he does with his weak foot, and the ball ends up in the opposite corner of the goal.
The clip above shows Sakala’s off-ball progression with a focus on getting into goalscoring positions. Sakala is a strong runner and formidable opposition in any foot race. In this instance, as soon as his team wins the ball back and an inch of space is found, he darts towards it. Sakala does well to get in front of the defender and then, even at full speed, he is able to get off an accurate slotted shot, past the goalkeepers right and into an open net.
A less prominent feature yet still important is Sakala’s ability to create space whilst presented with limited space. At Oostende this is not as regular an occurrence as it would be at Rangers; thus, Sakala is perhaps not well-rehearsed to deal with the double blocks of 4 presented in the Scottish Premiership. Regardless, in the clip above, Sakala does well to get a shot off despite the limited space. Sakala uses his body well to get the goal side of the defender, and as a result, opens his foot and curl it into the corner. Sakala’s ability to navigate these situations is the most significant question looming around his strikers play; however, he has shown the nous to operate under waves of defensive pressure in cases like the clip above.
Passing
In terms of a stylistic comparison when it comes to a Rangers forward, Sakala is most similar to Kent. His passing and arsenal of passes are not extensive yet not basic and are best utilised in the final third. However, do not expect him to force openings with clever searching balls; though expect him to put feed in attractive balls from the wings and provide a healthy supply of layoffs to incoming runners.
In the clip above, we see Sakala beat multiple defenders with an explosive turn of pace and scoop turn. However, he quickly realises that he is running out of pitch and is forced to pass it. Despite the lack of time, Sakala identifies an area of interest and pushes a ball there, where two options present themselves. The late runner takes president and ends up with the telling touch, which ultimately ends up off target, justice ultimately not served to Sakala and his impressive exploits.
A similar opportunity presents itself in the clip above, like the previous clip. Again Sakala manufactures space with some tricky footwork. However, this time he is afforded more time to pick out an appropriate ball. Despite the expectation to deliver low and fast to the clutter of bodies besides the keeper, Sakala exercises patience and instead slips in a late runner who is just entering the penalty box. The ball is timed well and leads to a shooting chance which is unfortunately squandered.
Movement
Sakala finds himself firmly in the Kent and Jones school of movement, a dynamic player who can create space with changes of pace and trickery. The consistency at which he can replicate this will determine if he is a resounding success like Kent or a frustratingly talented enigma like Jones.
Sakala is an eccentric performer who shows off the incredible occasionally; the clip above shows this explicitly. Here Sakala, alongside his teammates, make a concerted effort to open a channel for him to run into. Once this has proved successful, Sakala moves towards and is fed the ball by a teammate. The awkward nature of the ball forces improvisation; here, Sakala magically back-heels it over his defensive matchup, which buys him space to either shoot or pass. Despite choosing the wrong option, the creation of this chance here is solely down to Sakala’s magic feet.
Sakala’s effective direct movement is part technique and part raw physical attributes, with the marriage of the two results in chance creation and progression. The clip above shows off the latter. Here we see Sakala in acres of space receives the ball with back to goal. With the knowledge of imminent defence pressure, Sakala has the piece of mind to let the ball roll and take the defender on in a foot race. Sakala’s decision proves fruitful and allows him to beat the defender and find a direct route to the box.
Out of Possession
Sakala’s high energy output is not limited to on the ball affairs. Instead, he extends his hard work to off the ball duty, a perfect profile for the Rangers and their expectations.
The clip above is a perfect example of Sakala at his best when off the ball. He aggressively pounces on the indecision of the opposition, winning the ball back swiftly and quickly transitioning towards the final third. His height might limit his ability to compete with the larger centre-backs; however, his pace and work rate make it so Sakala could end up disturbing opposition defences like a stubborn midge.
Sakala within the Rangers System
As previously mentioned, this season is Sakala’s first in Belgium, where he has consistently been selected as a striker. At Rangers, Sakala would fill gaps to the left and centre. The Zambian can provide cover for Ryan Kent as it is unlikely that the Englishman can feature over 50 times in back to back seasons. There are some concerns over Sakala’s ability to hold down a frontline as a lone striker; however, I feel that this concern is averted as even as the sole striker, the fluid nature of the front three allows for roaming and positional swaps. Additionally, Rangers’ attacking style does not require a massive physical presence; Morelos’s physical exploits are helpful but not the ground that the front three are balanced upon. Sakala should hopefully provide performances both domestically and continentally and should be used as both cover and a starter depending on game state and opposition. The stylistic transition from a very vertical and counter-attacking Oostende to a possession dominant Rangers-side will take its time, however, the Zambian should be afforded the patience that his potential deserves. Expect Sakala to operate similar to Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams in the NBA, an essential fixture in the attacking system often found coming off the bench yet ends up with comparable output and playing time to those who start the 90.
Credits
Data: Wyscout
Video: Wyscout
Telestration: Play by Metrica Sports
